5/19 – The Chief’s “Very HOT” Friday Morning Forecast
Today I’m expecting temperatures to climb into the lower 90s (heat indices nearing mid 90s) today across much of the area so be mindful to stay hydrated and limit time outdoors during peak heat of the afternoon. Drier mid-level air and rising mid-level heights will keep pop up thunderstorm activity restrained primarily across the eastern semicircle of Lake Pontchartrain and coastal MS, along the lake and sea-breezes. Another muggy night ahead with dew-point temperatures remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s. Light southerlies will return as well only aiding these conditions before becoming more westerly ahead of the approaching weak frontal system.
Heading into Saturday, a disturbance will dig through the Great Lakes region with associated surface trough and post-frontal high pressure driving a cooler, drier air mass southward across central CONUS. By the time this frontal system is approaching the area on Saturday, the shortwave trough will be lifting out of the Great Lakes and the associated surface features will begin losing their identity so it’s not anticipated that this front will pack much of a punch which is to be expected in May.
Regardless, afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will be enhanced by increased mid-level moisture, subtle height falls, and strong surface warming reaching convective temperature area wide. A stalled front will be located at or very near the coast Sunday. This will help keep things unsettled at the coast and into the marine community through Monday. This front will slowly decay while the next front will be waiting for a few things to occur before moving into the area as a back door front Wednesday into Thursday.