5/18 – The Chief’s “Hot & Dry Pattern” Wednesday Morning Forecast

The synoptic pattern will hold through the short-term period with a broad area of high pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast extending westward along the northern Gulf Coast. The northwestern periphery of the ridge will start to break down and become more zonal, especially in the mid and upper levels. However, some drier air over the western Gulf of Mexico will get advected around the periphery of the low-level ridge toward our area today. This slight decrease in boundary-layer moisture along with a slight strengthening of the mid-level subsidence should be enough to inhibit deeper convective updrafts from developing. While a pop up shower or  storm cannot be ruled out each afternoon, the forecast is dry with coverage less than 5 percent Wednesday-Friday. Highs each day range from the upper 80s along the coast to lower 90s inland.

A wet weather pattern looks to return to the region this weekend into early next week. A disturbance that is currently moving onshore in Southern CA is forecast to cut off from the stronger westerlies over the CONUS and subsequently drift southeastward across the Baja CA over the next few days. A mid-latitude disturbance will amplify over the Rockies and eventually kick out this cutoff low eastward by Friday. The disturbance will bring increasing chances for showers and storms starting as this disturbance tracks eastward along the Central Gulf Coast this weekend. This system looks to connect with deeper moisture from the western Caribbean by the time it reaches our area. This could set to the stage for locally heavy rainfall, especially on Sunday with precip chances near 60-80%.

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