5/18 – Rob’s Friday “Morning News” Forecast

A mid/upper level trough positioned across the lower/mid-Mississippi Valley region and the central Gulf Coast will pull off to the northeast and weaken through Saturday as weak high-pressure aloft builds into the region during the course of the weekend. Upper level northwest flow over the area today will become more westerly on Saturday and then west-southwest on Sunday. Models indicate that the relatively drier air that moved into the forecast area yesterday, will be replaced by a somewhat higher moisture values later today.

This along with strong diurnal heating and a potential complex of T-Storms over north central Texas possibly impacting part of the area this afternoon will likely result in better convective coverage today, with the best chances being across the northwest sections of the region. Lower rain chances are expected over the weekend, especially Saturday, with stronger ridging aloft over the region. Temperatures will continue to run above normal, in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Weakening of the upper ridge across the Gulf Coast region next week along higher moisture content air will lead to an overall better chance for daily convection next work week and will be typical of a summertime weather pattern. High temperatures are expected to be a bit lower next week, but still above normal.