5/17 – The Chief’s “Summertime Heat” Tuesday Morning Forecast

Today and Wednesday, high-pressure will set up over the area. Conditions will be dry primarily, looking at the models. Today will mainly be a transitional day where the surface winds will shift from northerly to southerly. Some moisture will be reintroduced to the environment and instability will be decent. Wednesday, surface winds will be primarily southerly, which will enhance warm air advection and moisture in the area. As a result, highs this week are forecast to be in the low 90s with apparent temperatures in the mid-high 90s.

Thursday and Friday, conditions will be dry based on the model consensus. Upper level high-pressure will be the main pattern over the area. Southerly surface winds will help advect warm and moist air into the region. Upper level divergence will help to enhance some lifting in the environment. Looking at the models, an isolated shower could be possible in the coastal marine areas Friday night due to an influx of tropical moisture. But overall, a hot and dry couple of days at the end of the workweek with highs forecast in the low 90s.

Saturday and Sunday, a disturbance is expected to move through the area, enhancing rainfall for the area. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be expected Saturday and Sunday, especially during the daytime and evening hours. Lightning and gusty winds will be the main threats associated with this system. Locally heavy rainfall will be a concern as well, especially Sunday.

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