5/17 – Rob Knight’s HOT/HUMID “Friday-Eve” Forecast
Temperatures will continue to run well above normal in the near term with primarily only isolated convection each day through Saturday. A mid/upper trough over the Gulf south will gradually pull off to the northeast through Saturday and weaken. Models indicate that drier air will be working into the area from the west and southwest today and will persist across the area into the early weekend. This drier air will limit the convection coverage overall. The better chance during this period will be this afternoon over the eastern and northeast sections of the region…coastal and parts of southwest Mississippi…where the better moisture will reside and closer to energy moving into the base of the aforementioned trough.A few of the storms could be on the stronger side with the potential for some gusty winds. Daily highs will continue to be in the lower to mid-90s; however, it will likely be a little cooler near the coast when compared to the last few days courtesy of a daily sea-breeze.
Deeper moisture is forecast to return by the second half of the weekend and be present into next week. Flat ridging aloft will be over the south during the early and mid-part of next week. This will lead to more typical scattered daily convection primarily during the afternoon hours. Temperatures during the day will continue to run above normal, but a few degrees cooler, mainly upper 80s to lower 90s.