5/13 – Payton’s Sunday Night Forecast

Another hot one, and warm temperatures look like they’ll be sticking around. Ridging aloft over the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast U.S. will weaken moving into
the work week as a mid/upper level low over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico shifts northward into the northeast Gulf by mid week and
then finally into the southeast states. A surface reflection of
this feature will also slowly work its way northward during the
period with the low expected to mostly likely move inland in the
vicinity of the Florida panhandle and south Alabama. NHC has
indicated a low probability…30 percent…of tropical or
subtropical development with this system through 48 hours and a
medium chance…40 percent…of tropical or subtropical
development over the next 5 days. At this time, it appears that
the main effects of this system, regardless of development, will
stay to the east of the local forecast area. A considerable amount
of moisture will be associated with this system, but again it
appears that the majority of the rain will stay to our east over
Florida and Alabama. However, rain chances over the forecast area
are expected to go up during the week with the best chances across
coastal Mississippi. With the increased chance for convection and
more in the way of cloud cover, daily high temperatures will
lower slightly as the week progresses. The eastern Gulf system
will be picked up by a mid level short wave trough toward the
weekend and will then gradually move away from the area.)

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