5/11 – The Chief’s “Low End Severe Threat” Thursday Morning Forecast
Overall, a complicated forecast through the short term, mainly due to the upper level pattern over the region. An upper level weakness continues to reside over Texas this afternoon keeping our region under an active southwesterly flow aloft with impulses circulating around this upper level cutoff low. Over the last couple of days several mesoscale convective features (MCVs and MCSs) have developed along the TX coast and pushed north and east through parts of our region and points generally west.
This morning rain chances will be on the lower end but elevate around midday. It appears that a complex of showers/t-storms will move across eh area this afternoon/evening. A strong storm or two, although not the primary immediate concern cannot be ruled out either in the stronger/wider updrafts. Localized strong gusty winds would be possible in such cases. Overnight, the upper level feature will finally get absorbed into the large scale longwave trough over the Rockies. This will allow for some weak high pressure to develop in its wake across the lower MS River Valley.
The complicated mess of a pattern continues into the upcoming weekend, although much of our forecast area appears to be on the dry side of an upper level high pressure and away from what appears to be a blocking high pressure to our south and east through the weekend. This has caused a break in rain chances in time for the weekend.