5/1 – Rob’s “Warming Trend” 1st of May Forecast

A generally quiet weather pattern continues over region as upper level high-pressure tracks from west to east across the area. This has created a warming trend and has been suppressing precipitation development. It will slide far enough east today to allow for a surge of low level moisture as southeasterly flow strengthens…and combined with daytime heating may allow for a few showers to develop this afternoon.

The high-pressure will become anchored across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday through the end of the week. Temperatures will rise well into the mid-80s as the high expands. Strong subsidence combined with a mid-level inversion will keep low level buoyancy from being realized, therefore keeping no rain Wed and Thur. An upper level trough moving across the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday night followed by a more southern stream trough over the weekend will erode and suppress the ridge to the south.

Low end rain chances will begin Friday (mainly to the west) as the ridge south of the area weakens. Rain chances will increase substantially on Saturday as a frontal boundary associated with the second trough moves into the region. Models then show precipitation chances falling off quite a bit Sunday as the shortwave shifts east and the boundary falls apart.

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