5/1 – Payton’s Tuesday Afternoon Forecast

Happy first day of May! A few showers are possible this afternoon, but for the most part expect dry, humid breezy conditions. A generally quiet weather pattern continues over region as an upper level ridge tracks from west to east across the area.

The upper ridge will become anchored across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday through the end of the week. Temperatures will rise well into the mid-80s as the high expands. Strong subsidence combined with a mid-level inversion will keep low level buoyancy from being realized. Therefore, keeping previous forecast of no rain Wed and Thur. An upper level trough moving across the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday night followed by a more southern stream trough over the weekend will erode and suppress the ridge to the south. Low end rain chances will begin Friday as the ridge south of the area weakens. Those rain chances will increase substantially on Saturday as a frontal boundary associated with the second trough moves into the region. Models then show precipitation chances falling off quite a bit Sunday as the shortwave shifts east and the boundary falls apart.

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