4/23 – Payton’s Monday Afternoon Forecast

Drier and cooler air has moved into the central Gulf coast region in the wake of the cold frontal passage yesterday. A stacked low pressure system over western Tennessee will be slow to advance east-northeast near the Tennessee/Kentucky border through Tuesday. Broad cyclonic flow extending south of the low into the forecast area along with a low level thermal trough will support wrap- round clouds across much of the northern and central portions of the forecast area at times today through Tuesday before clearing out Tuesday night. Rain is not expected through Wednesday. The more cloudy areas north will likely only see highs in the lower 70s at best today, otherwise most locations to the south should see highs in the mid 70s. Another cool night is expected tonight with lows in the 50s. This is a bit below the climatological normals for this time of year which is highs around 80 and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The airmass will modify somewhat on Tuesday with highs expected to be closer to normal, but then lows on Tuesday night are expected to drop into the mid 50s to around

The models are in fair agreement with a sharp shortwave trough that is expected to move southeast through the northern plains Tuesday and Tuesday night, the central plains Wednesday and early Wednesday night, and the lower Mississippi Valley late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Moisture return from the Gulf will be lacking with this system as it moves into the central Gulf Coast region, but the strong lift associated with the shortwave will create it’s own moisture and rainfall.

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