4/21 – The Chief’s “Cold Front Moving In” Friday Morning Forecast
Early this morning, a strong upper disturbance extended from the Upper Mississippi River Valley southward into Texas. At the surface, a cold front extended from northern Indiana, to near Texarkana, to central Texas. A nearly solid line of showers and thunderstorms extended from northern Mississippi, to near Monroe, to east of Lake Charles.
The main forecast issue in the short term will, of course, be the showers and thunderstorms currently on our doorstep. Looking at forecast soundings and analysis continues to show that the more favorable conditions for strong convection will be over the Gulf of Mexico to the south of the area, with less favorable conditions over our area. Looks to be a brief (2-3 hours at best) window that will be favorable for strong convection across the area, and that will be primarily during the morning early afternoon hours today. With the thunderstorm area expected to remain progressive, the threat of widespread heavy rainfall has diminished, but a quick 1-2 inches of rain could occur with some efficient storms.
The actual cold front will move through the area this evening. Moisture parameters will be less favorable at that time, but there will still be enough instability where scattered convection can develop, and a strong storm can’t be ruled out entirely.
All precipitation should be done before sunrise Saturday across the area, and the day should be pretty nice across the area with less humid conditions. Surface high pressure will move in and shape the forecast this weekend before clouds move back in Sunday afternoon.