4/16 – Rob’s “Continued HEAVY RAIN Threat” Friday Morning Forecast
It’s pretty safe to assume that the entire area is saturated at this point, after widespread 3-6″ rainfall totals during the workweek so far.
The bad news is that the rain is not over yet, although we do see some light at the end of the tunnel. A northern stream disturbance will drop into the Ohio River Valley behind that system on Sunday and finally shove the frontal boundary far enough south to allow the area to dry out. Until this happens, impulses moving through the zonal flow will produce periods of showers and thunderstorms. One will roll through the area this morning, with another quick on its heels late this afternoon and overnight. Probably a third round at some point tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night, but that one is somewhat less certain. We should start to dry out on Sunday.
Today’s activity could produce a few hail reports, with heavy rain certainly a concern. Overall, looking at potentially 2-3 inches (locally higher amounts) over the next 36 hours, as any organized heavy rainfall will have the potential for at least brief flash flooding. High temperatures today and Saturday will depend on how much, if any, progress northward the frontal boundary makes.
As the Ohio Valley low moves toward the east coast on Monday, a pocket of drier air and surface high pressure will move into the area. Any rain should stay mainly offshore during the workweek. If there is a day with potential for a few showers, it would probably be Tuesday.