4/13 – Rob Knight’s “Springtime Pattern” Wednesday Morning Forecast

A t-storm complex to the north will continue to move NE and get dissipate later this morning in advance of an approaching cold front. Going into the afternoon hours, focus shifts off to our northwest at an approaching cold front entering the Red River valley, extending into Arkansas. As t-storms activity develops in advance of the approaching system, in this environment we could see a few isolated severe wind gusts possible as well due to dry air entrainment.

This will clearly be a messy/difficult forecast as how features will develop through this afternoon. The bottom line is there will be the potential for severity late afternoon into mid-evening. Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be a threat. Given the frontal speed, severe weather could extend even into the overnight hours but once the front races through, conditions will clear out and become much more calm thereafter going into early Thursday. Clouds clear out through the morning, feeling noticeably drier with a northeast breeze.

Once we get into the weekend, minor disturbances will ride west to east along the stalled frontal boundary to the east. Numbers do not look impressive for the area of showers/t-storms that develop Saturday evening and again Sunday evening/night. But we will need to get a bit closer to this time frame to get a better understanding. This front quickly decays and what is left of it gets sent rapidly northward ahead of the next approaching system.