4/12 – Rob Knight’s “Sunny & Mild” Monday Afternoon Forecast

A warm front will move into the area and stall Tuesday as a cold front moves into western LA. This will bring rain back to the area beginning Tuesday. A few disturbances will also move along the boundary through Wednesday. Deep moisture will be forced into the area and against the trough axis by a high centered to the east. The trough will be oriented east-west over our area so all locations should see 1 to 2 inches of rain Tuesday and another 1 to 2 inches Wednesday, so totals could be 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts Tuesday through Wednesday for this event. There will be the potential for strong winds and hail but the threat lowers as we progress through the day becoming more of a rainfall scenario Tuesday. SPC agrees and has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over the area for Tuesday. Several area rivers will still be fairly high, and we’ll be watching this closely as rainfall accumulations begin to add up.

The first wet system should be departing Thursday by way of a cold frontal passage. The next system is being advertised a little different by which model one looks at. If the front is able to stay south of the area the rainfall should remain light to moderate and shouldn’t be an issue. But if the front moves back over our area, a surface low would form along it and heavy rain would be back in the forecast. At the moment, things have been trending for the front to stay offshore keeping things cloudy cool and off and on rain Thursday through Monday from overrunning.