4/10 – Rob’s “Potentially SEVERE” Easter Weekend Forecast

We should see some light rain return late Saturday as our front retreats back to the north as a warm front. Everything points to the potential of a large severe weather outbreak across the Gulf South. The main protagonist is still spinning along the southern CA coast. Through today and tonight it will slowly work east-southeast inland along the US/MX border. At the same time a strong disturbance will drop south in the northern stream towards the Rockies. By Saturday night this disturbance will begin to open up our main low probably south of the 4 corners.

This system will continue to quickly lift into the Great Lakes region by early Monday. At the surface we will see a surface low-pressure slowly deepen as it moves towards the Lower and Mid MS Valley’s and then the Great Lakes Monday morning. This will allow for deep rich gulf moisture to quickly be transported back to the north ahead of our severe weather. Looking at the wind field, as the system approaches the Lower MS Valley the Low-level winds will respond and a LL jet of 50-65kts and intensifying will develop and move across the area. Overall if this plays out like currently expected this system appears to have just about everything working for it. The SPC has outlooked an enhanced and moderate risk for our area.

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