3/7 – Brittany’s “Mild” Tuesday Evening Forecast
No significant changes in the overall synoptic pattern that has been influencing the region for the past several day is anticipated through Thursday night. A weak backdoor frontal boundary will remain stalled just to the north and northeast of the forecast area. To the south of this front, light onshore flow will persist. At the same time, a persistent mid to upper level ridge axis will continue to induce strong subsidence aloft. The combination of warming due to the subsidence and onshore flow will lead to continued warm and muggy conditions through Thursday night. Temperatures will be near or above record levels each day as highs climb into the mid 80s over inland areas and the upper 70s and lower 80s closer to the coast. High dewpoints from the onshore flow pattern will also keep dewpoints elevated in the mid to upper 60s. As a result, overnight lows will also be well above average in the upper 60s and lower 70s through Thursday night.
The stalled front to the north of the area will also promote some isolated to widely scattered convective development during peak heating hours on both Wednesday and and Thursday afternoon. Any convection will remain shallow due to the strong subsidence and weak lapse rates in place in the mid-levels, and the convection will be focused closer to the boundary over the northeast third of the CWA. Other than the convective potential each day, conditions also remain favorable for a low stratus deck to form each night. Some stratus build down fog will also be possible, but dense fog concerns remain limited due to elevated boundary layer winds of 15 to 25 knots.
Friday sees a bit of a pattern change as an upper level low moves across the upper midwest and the Great Lakes with an associated frontal system draping across the lower Mississippi Valley. This brings a chance of rain to our local area on Friday, but accumulations will only be on the order of a tenth of an inch. Temperatures will be a bit more temperate, but will pop back up some on Sunday although not to the current levels. A similar setup comes through Sunday into Monday bringing more rain but a stronger northwest flow and accompanying much cooler and more seasonable temperatures; highs early in the week being around 70ish and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. POPs aren`t particularly high, peaking around 50%, but accumulations could be more in the quarter- to half- inch range. With the more typical, seasonable weather coming in generally stayed with the base NBM numbers for all the long term grids.
