3/25 – Rob’s “Severe Threat” Afternoon Forecast

With the threat of widespread heavy precipitation diminished, the Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled. I can’t rule out isolated heavy rainfall this afternoon, but most areas have had 24 hours to drain/pump previous heavy rainfall.

Shortwave over west Texas this morning will lift into northern Arkansas around midday and the Lower Ohio and Middle Mississippi River Valley this evening. The airmass will certainly be unstable the area under a SLIGHT threat for severity. Best forcing and turning will be to the north of our area, but definitely enough indicators thereto support SPC’s slight risk across the area, with the threat diminishing near or shortly after sunset. Areas to the north of our area can expect a rather significant severe weather threat this afternoon and evening.

As front again becomes parallel to the upper flow, showers could linger overnight along the Mississippi coast and lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes, but do not anticipate heavy rainfall with these, as precipitable water values fall off. The boundary returns north on Friday as shortwave ridging builds in, continuing through Saturday.

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