3/22 – Rob Knight’s “SEVERE THREAT/RED ALERT” Tuesday Afternoon Forecast
The area is under an ENHANCED/MODERATE threat for severity…especially noon through midnight
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM…
Looking at the main event, scattered to numerous showers/t-storms will move across the area this afternoon/tonight. All parameters seem to indicate forcing to any cells that develop ahead of the main line is lacking but there is opportunity if cloud cover can be eroded and enough heating can be achieved. The main forcing will be provided by the front itself. With the main support moving near and then north of the area, there is a good chance that some cells along the line will produce strong damaging winds and tornadoes.
PROBABILITIES: Damaging Winds 16%, Tornadoes 14% and Hail 11%.
The question again will be how many storms will produce with the stronger variables NW and north of the area, would not be surprised to see the highest risk areas shifted north a bit but still covering a large portion of the area.
WATCHES/WARNINGS include: Wind Advisory, Flood Watch, Coastal Flood & Small Craft Advisory.