3/2 – Brittany’s “Scattered Showers Ahead” Thursday Night Forecast
Some weak convection has developed over the MS Sound and near the Pearl River this afternoon. This is likely in response to steel low level lapse rates/enhanced low level instability and increasing low level flow. Looking upstream, a strong and further amplifying trough will continue into the ArkLaTex region later tonight and early Friday. This parent trough will send a cold front closer to our region first entering the BTR region by around 3-5am Friday. Shear looks to increase out ahead of the system and favorable mid level lapse rates helping with at least some elevated instability. The question is within the limiting factors. First, time of day and lack of insolation may limit instability just a bit. At this juncture the best potential for this to occur would be over the far northwest portions of the CWFA. If this were to occur, strong gusty winds and perhaps a mesovort or two would be possible…respectively. However, lackluster guidance in both mesoscale and globals suggests that most of the area should remain capped.
Overall, the front appears to move a bit slower than previous forecast. The front may not exit our MS Gulf Coast Counties until mid morning or so Friday…leaving to at least some potential for shower or T`storm activity. Outside of convection, winds will also increase overnight ahead of the deepening surface low. In fact, a wind advisory was needed for wind gusts up to 45mph at times. Behind the front, winds will drop pretty quickly behind the front during the day Friday. A drier air mass will move into the region and we’ll have at least moderate winds early in the day.
CAA takes over, but with the Pacific air mass moving into the region we may drop to around average for this time of year into the early portion of the weekend.