3/17 – Rob Knight’s “SEVERE THREAT” St. Patrick’s Day Forecast
Unsettled pattern will continue through this evening as now…the area is under and ENHANCED THREAT for SEVERITY. An active day ahead as a strong area of low pressure will rapidly move out of the four corners region and into the southern plains this afternoon. The system will continue to rapidly move eastward into the western Arkansas and the eastern OK region by this evening. This will bring a springtime cold front into the forecast area this evening. With the given track moving through NE Arkansas and extreme southern MO…the highest risk for severe storms should remain to the north of the forecast area, however…given the very high instability of the atmosphere…the risk for a few isolated super cell storms could fire up out ahead of the main event this evening. Winds will increase this afternoon out ahead of the system with surface winds gusting to 25 to 30 outside of thunderstorms. Damaging winds…large hail and even an isolated tornado are also possible along this squall line. A rapid drying trend will occur from west to east tomorrow night with clearing skies and gusty westerly winds behind the front.
A cooler and dry forecast is expected Thursday and beyond. Low pressure will track through the Tennessee valley on Thursday with surface high pressure building in from the center of the country. Troughing will hang over the eastern seaboard leaving temperatures below normal through much of the weekend with highs only in the 60s through the period Friday-Sunday. High pressure will eventually move east of the area by early next week. The next system moves eastward through OK and central Texas by Wednesday.