3/1 – Rob’s 1st Day of March Forecast

A weak cold front is overhead and slowly moving to the east…but will retrograde to the NW in the form of a warm front today. The concern for later today is that boundary stalling along the I-10 corridor. With that front stalled, the combination of increasing surface convergence and heating will promote shower and thunderstorm development. Peak coverage and intensity should be around midday/early afternoon with a rather quick decrease later in the afternoon.

The next big impact will be Sunday with a frontal passage. Leading up that on Saturday, a few showers will begin developing as moisture begins surging northward. Mid 60 dew-points along with temps warming up to almost 80 will be conducive for at least scattered showers. Sunday on the other hand, is looking much more impactful than Saturday. A broad trough digging across the mid-section of the country will drive a strong cold front through late Sunday afternoon. Confidence continues to increase due to few changes in model solutions from run to run, so bumped up precipitation chances to around 80% in the area.

Guidance is suggesting damaging wind potential, hail as well as tornadoes being the lowest threat. SPC now has the area in a Slight Risk for Sunday.

A few days of cold and quiet weather will return early next week as post frontal air mass moves in. Temperatures will drop significantly as well. A drop of nearly 40 degrees will be possible in some locations. Expect a few days of highs only in the 50s and lows in the 30s to 40s. Low temps will be near freezing for northern portions of the interior counties Wednesday morning.

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