Surface low-pressure currently over east New Mexico will track east and northeast today and Tuesday. After the low passes east, the associated cold frontal system will drop south into the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, with more showers and a few storms. Any surface heating will provide instability in this moisture for showers and few storms especially across the north half of the forecast area late Monday through Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Numbers do not look very supportive of severe weather or flooding issues at the moment.
Frontal passage will occur on Wednesday but southwest flow aloft will maintain a threat of rain through Thursday. The disturbance will dive southeast across mid-Mississippi Valley Friday and southeast coast Saturday. This feature will yield a northwest flow over the forecast area Friday and Saturday.