2/12 – Rob’s “T-Storms & Rainy” Morning Forecast

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Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the forecast area this morning as a cold front moves into south Mississippi. At the moment there has not been much in the way of lightning with these storms this morning and everything looks to be sub-severe. We are not expecting severe weather today as this front moves through. There may be a few strong gusts with these storms but no major threat of severe weather. Rainfall rates have been anywhere between a 1/2″ to an inch per hour in heavier convection. Storm totals for the area could be anywhere between a 1/2 to an 1.5″. Rain should come to an end this afternoon.

A progressive pattern is expected which will bring a return of surface high pressure and cooler, drier conditions behind the front tonight through Thursday. Guidance points to a few waves moving north of the area on Friday and again late Saturday into Sunday. Initially we thought the weekend could be dry but this guidance suggests that there could be a few showers around. I have added precipitation chances into the forecast for these times. Monday looks like it could turn out to be the quiet day, but new guidance suggests that another system could bring big rains to the southeast United States by Tuesday into Wednesday. Will have to watch this event as it draws closer.