2/6 – Rob Knight’s “Foggy & Rainy” Thursday Morning Forecast
The main forecast concern in the next 12-24 hours will be on current storms, ending time, and wind issues, especially over the coastal waters. Cold front continues to make progress through the area and should be to the east by midday. As the front continues to slide to the southeast Cold Air Advection will continue through the day. This should lead to breezy conditions but many things aren’t lining up to get that real windy day that we occasionally see behind cold fronts.
As for rain today, the severe threat is definitely trending down and as most storms appear to be post frontal over our area already the biggest concern would be small hail. Rain should finally push east of the area around midday/early afternoon with coastal Mississippi the last to see the rain move out early this afternoon. Flash Flood watch will remain in place through mid-afternoon but luckily coastal Mississippi saw fairly little rain overnight.
Tonight through Friday night will be cooler and drier. Much colder air will be moving in and with dewpoints dropping into the 20s and 30s Friday morning will be another chilly one for the area, lows Friday morning will only be 5-10 degrees below normal. There may be a few isolated locations that touch freezing. Friday will be a fairly nice day with dry, sunny, and cool conditions. Temperatures will already be moderating late Friday and moisture will begin to increase overnight Friday night. This will lead to morning lows Saturday morning running about 10-12 degrees warmer than Friday morning. This weekend temperatures will continue to moderate with the mercury climbing back into the upper 60s for daytime highs.
Next week looks to begin active as southwest flow aloft will send multiple impulses across the region. The first weak one will be Monday. This wave will drive a front towards the region but with southwest flow aloft the push southeast will be very weak and could end up leaving a weak front/boundary stalled/draped across the region through the week. This would also help set the stage for multiple rounds of rain which we will need to keep an eye on.