2/28 – The Chief’s “Final Day of February” Tuesday Morning Forecast

Another well above average day is expected in terms of temperatures across the region. At the surface a weak stationary front north of Hattiesburg will continue to slowly track east. Expect far less wind as the front will continue to reside near the region. Outside of a few extra clouds, the lack of upper level support should keep this feature dry.

Going into midweek, not much changes. The flow might gradually start shifting to a more southwesterly flow around the northern or northwest periphery of a modest high pressure over the western Caribbean. In this active flow an impulse does start to trigger some rainfall along and north of the I20 corridor.

After a stretch of dry weather we will see rain chances return to the forecast on Thursday. Ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance, high pressure will get pushed eastward away from us and along with increasing southerly flow we will see additional deep moisture advect into the area. This helps to bring the potential for some spotty showers and t-storms Thursday late morning into the afternoon, mostly for northern parts of the area. Outside of that Thursday will continue the trend of above average temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

Getting into the focus of the extended period, the potential for severe weather Thursday into Friday will be possible. Models are in good agreement on the timing and setup of our next impactful weather system. At the surface a low strong low pressure system develops across Texas and moves across the ArkLaTex before moving off the northeast into Friday. A strong cold front will also form at the surface, associated with the surface low, with a line of convection expected to fire along this front. While instability is not anything crazy, strong lift and shear combined with good enough lower level thermodynamics should keep the severe weather risk in play as the line of convection moves into our area. As a result of all of this, all of the area is under a SLIGHT risk (2/5) of severe weather and northern areas are under an ENHANCED risk (3/5) of severe weather from Thursday evening through sunrise Friday. All modes of severe weather including tornadoes, damaging wind, and large hail will be possible with this system.

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