2/27 – The Chief’s “Very Warm Temperatures Continue” Monday Morning Forecast

Ahead of a front today will be quiet the windy day and warm. Because we will be able to mix out quite high we will also be rather breezy this morning and through midday. The strongest wind gusts will likely occur just after sunrise and through noon. By midday and through the afternoon much of the region will likely see a steady 15 to 20 mph wind with a few stronger gusts but the strongest wind gusts will be the first 3 to 4 hours after sunrise.

Tuesday will be warm but at least it will not feel quite as rough as today and previous days as the drier air that is expected to push in tonight should help keep the RH values down. Don’t get used to it though as southerly winds quickly cause moisture to surge back north Tuesday night. The ridge remains centered well south of the area over the western Caribbean with generally zonal flow over the area through Wednesday. That will keep the region quiet and rain free but conditions looks like they could quickly change heading into Thursday and especially Thursday night.

Going into Thursday we have some high moisture content in the air that gives us some chance for some stray showers, especially in the northern side of the area and during the day temperatures remain high, generally in the 80s. A significant low pressure system moves to our north bringing a front across the area.  Global models have come into agreement for a front associated with this system to pass through the area Thursday night and early Friday morning.  Indications are that the front will be moving quickly, being well to the east by midday Friday.

Conditions associated with this frontal system are showing some good potential for severe weather. This has led the SPC to outlook our area under a 15% probability of severe weather and northern parts of the area under a 30% probability. As has been typical in recent potential severe weather events, the best setup looks to be just to our west and north. Behind the system is a much cooler and dry air mass with highs around 70 and lows dipping into the 40s and no rain.  Warming occurs over the weekend and early next week as high pressure builds into the area.