2/23 – Rob Knight’s “MUCH WARMER” Tuesday Morning Forecast

High pressure will build in from the west today and settle east of the area, with sunshine today and light winds. Clear skies and calm winds expected tonight as warmer temperatures will begin moving back into the area. The main focus in the short term beyond today is staying firm on a warmer bias. Will be averaging 2-3 degrees above model guidance both today and Wednesday as we have begun to enter the time of the year where guidance struggles on a higher sun angle come peak afternoon temperatures. Not to mention clear skies during the afternoon owing to plenty of afternoon mixing. The surface high pulls east of the area late today and into Wednesday, dragging slightly higher surface moisture back to the area from southerly winds.

By early Thursday, noticing long-range guidance trying to push a weak front into the area supported by an area of low pressure moving across the Great Lakes/NE area. I can’t rule out some isolated showers as this boundary eventually slows down. It will not take much to get at least some light showers going with just enough low-level convergence at work. The front will pull back north again as a warm front, out ahead of the next approaching disturbance from the west.

Temperature trends are looking very warm for the upcoming weekend, as high-pressure begins to build back into the region. The strength of this ridge will try to keep most active weather well to our north, but a few showers will be in the area this weekend.

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