2/2 – The Chief’s “Big Changes Ahead” Thursday Morning Forecast

Finally seeing the models come into solid agreement on every variable and this has caused some sudden moderate changes in severe wx and rainfall risk levels and placement from yesterday. The features that will eventually affect the area today will be a low pressure and attendant cold front, the surface low is very weak at the moment. The low pressure will move NE out of the gulf and directly over our area today. The rainfall will still be the bigger concern although not as much as previously thought. There could still be a strip of higher rainfall numbers within a broad area over the NW portion of the area. This does not show up in widespread overall amounts though. While most areas over this NW section of the area will see around a half to an inch of rain, there could be a small strip of 2 inch amounts within this area and a few dots of 3 inches along this line would not be out of the question.

Once the surface low passes around noon or shortly thereafter, the cold front will race eastward and it will be noticeable as temps will fall almost 20 degrees in 3 hours from the mid to upper 60s to around 50 and further as the afternoon/evening progresses. This will be nasty as the rain will be stubborn to move out. This will be a cold light to moderate rain once the cold front passes and will last into the late evening hours ending from west to east around daylight Friday. Friday NW winds remain with skies clearing during the day and plenty of cold air advection keeping temps in the 50s for highs.

Windy conditions Friday will begin to taper off Friday night as high pressure begins to move into the region. Sunny skies will affect the area Friday before clouds return Sunday as a dry front will move into the region but dissipate north of the I-20 area.