2/12 – Rob Knight’s “Wet & Windy” Friday Morning Forecast
A stalled frontal boundary will linger south of the area through the weekend. Today and Saturday, rain chances will be increased due to increased Gulf convection lingering along that frontal boundary. Expect isolated or scattered shower along with embedded t-storms through the Valentine’s day weekend. These showers would mainly have the potential for some frequent lightning and light to moderate rainfall. Northerly surface winds will help to enhance the cold air over the region through the weekend.
Sunday will be mostly dry, with a chance for an isolated shower or two due to some lingering convection and moisture over the region. This rain would be light to moderate. Again, northerly surface winds will be helping to enhance the cold air advection over the region.
Monday, a cold front will be moving through the area. Rain chances will be increased Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. This rainfall is expected to be primarily light to moderate. Temperatures will be approaching or below freezing starting late Monday night. For some areas, the rain and cold temperatures will align enough to potentially have some winter precipitation (mainly freezing rain/sleet mix) late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Despite the chance for winter precipitation, we are not expecting any impacts or impactful accumulation.
However, this forecast is highly dependent upon how this system develops over the next few days. Small changes could have a big impact on the potential for winter weather. Another concern for Tuesday morning apart from the type of precipitation will be the temperatures. Lows on Tuesday morning are expected to be well below freezing (mid/upper 20s) and wind chills will be in the upper teens and low 20s.