2/1 – Rob Knight’s “Wet Pattern Ahead” Tuesday Morning Forecast
High-pressure will slowly move east as a strong cold front will begin moving rapidly SE through the Red River Valley this afternoon, with the return flow to be amplified. This is the first rainfall and should only be showers with an inch of rain not out of the question.
The next round of rain will be more convective along the cold front. The cold front will race SE until it moves under weak high-pressure. This simply means the front pumps the brakes and stalls over our area. The cold air then becomes very shallow as it slowly moves farther SE but undercuts the moist warm air. Can’t make any promises toward strong or severe thunderstorms but numbers are not showing this to be the case, if there were to be on or two it would have to be right along the frontal boundary. The main theme with this will be the rainfall today priming the area for a more convective rainfall with the front. All tallied, we could see up to an inch+ with today and tonight…then another 1-2″ Thursday with the front. If the convective rainfall can drop that in a short amount of time over any particular area, there could be some flash flooding of poor drainage areas.
Friday starts out with continued rainfall as the area remains in deep moisture flow. A cold front will be moving through the area Friday morning with rain clearing out of the entire area by Friday evening or Saturday morning. High pressure quickly builds down from the north behind it, with highs Friday in the middle 40s to middle 50s and only slightly warmer on Saturday.