12/6 – Rob Knight’s “Potential for a WINTRY MIX” Forecast

Rain continues along the Mississippi Gulf Coast:

The upper low that brought us the 30 to 40 degree temperature drop from yesterday is now over the southern tip of Hudson Bay as the associated cold front is now to our south. Very cold rain today for nearly the whole forecast area today with highs in the 40s and 50s. Fairly similar today and tomorrow with cold temperatures both days yet a lower chance for rain on Thursday. Another cold front will move into the area Thursday night into Friday, bringing another push of very cold winter temperatures. This will be the system that eventually clears us out Friday night for the weekend bringing sunny but very cold winter days. The big forecast challenge is the chance for snow Thursday night into Friday northern areas of the forecast area.

So, here is a brief breakdown of the situation. There are some indications of some snow flurries on the very back edge of the exiting precipitation as the cold air pushes south Thursday overnight and Friday morning. Again, this is areas in the northern portion of our forecast area. All about the timing here as how much moisture will there be when the colder temperature push arrives. Climatological snow events here are usually associated with a Gulf of Mexico low pressure system or a very slanted advance of cold air and overrunning precipitation.

We will get a much better handle on the strength of this situation later tonight. A stronger system would sweep out the moisture before the cold air while a weaker system could keep the moisture around with the cold air. And there lies the differences in the models and the forecast challenge at the moment. The takeaway is confidence will grow over the next few days. There is a chance of snow flurries on the back edge of exiting moisture with advancing cold air associated with another push of very cold air Thursday night into Friday. Clear skies return for the weekend, but winter has a grip with lows in the upper 20s inland and low to mid 30s coastal. Warmer temperatures are expected next week

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