12/30 – Rob’s “Status Quo Continues” Afternoon Forecast
As the high pressure remains seated over the Bahamas warm and moist air advection continues to be brought in from the Gulf. While there is the possibility of thunderstorms, indices are most favorable in the SW MS, and the LA Parishes bordering MS. An upper level low that forms over the SW CONUS and is absorbed by the upper level trough that extends from Canada. Guidance has speed this system up, moving the system into the region on Saturday afternoon and evening. While this system moves through fairly quick, the pressure gradient in the lower levels still remains pretty tight, helping to increase winds speeds.
As far as the system stacks through the atmosphere, the moisture axis does not quite line up with the strongest indices. This does help out any weather development for that day. After the front comes through, the pattern takes a drastic shift. With a strong high setting up over the CONUS, winds are expected to shift to the north and bring some pretty strong cold air advection down. This lowers our min temps down to below freezing, depending on the location. On Sunday in the northern part of the region, there is the potential for a HARD FREEZE.