12/29 – The Chief’s “Monstrous Warm-Up” Thursday Morning Forecast

Today will be a very nice December day with partly cloudy skies and afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. After today we will be heading into a much more active pattern.

A Major disturbance will be digging down through the Central and Southern Plains today, which will advect warm and moist air into our areas thanks to SW winds in the upper levels and SE winds at the surface. This warm and moist air will gradually bring increasing cloud cover through the day and into tomorrow. Conditions are still somewhat favorable for some patchy fog across the area tonight. However, model soundings are still showing the winds out of the southeast which would be advecting a lower relative humidity field into the area. This should in theory keep us from seeing a widespread dense fog event.

Heading into early Friday we will see a lone of convective showers and thunderstorms approach our area, driven by a pre-frontal trough that surges out ahead of the main disturbance. SPC has now outlooked us for a Marginal Risk of severe weather on Friday. Bringing up some model soundings does show a decent shear and enough instability to trend storms on the stronger side. One issue that could hinder the severe potential would be the inversion near the surface. This could cause things to remain mostly elevated and not completely reach the surface. Outside of the isolated tornado risk, if this line of convection races across the area, we could also see some isolated severe wind gusts.

Behind the line of convection we dry out through the rest of Saturday and lasting into Sunday. This will give us a pretty nice New Year’s Eve with decreasing cloud cover throughout the day and nice temperatures in the low 70s.

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