12/28 – Rob’s Monday Morning “Warmer Temps” Forecast
First two days are rather quiet with airmass continuing to modify. Partly to mostly sunny skies with highs upper 60s and lower 70s and lows overnight mainly in the 40s. The main change in the forecast will occur on Wednesday, as models continue to show an approaching cold front. Showers will become somewhat more numerous very late in the day Wednesday and more so overnight Wednesday night.
Confidence is increasing in a wet and possibly severe end to the year. There is still considerable uncertainty with regards to strength, timing and track but all indications point to Thursday and Thursday night. The main effects of the front will move through the region Thursday/Thursday night. Increasing moisture ahead of the system combined with potent upper level energy and a cold front should lead to no problem getting showers and thunderstorms to develop but there are some questions mainly pertaining to how much rain and strong to severe potential.
Some aspects that suggest we could luck out and miss the worst of the weather. There are many factors that suggest we could see a rather potent line of storms and possibly a few severe storms even ahead of the line. In addition there could be heavy rain as the line moves east but the individual cells will move more NNE and could train over the same areas. However, there is also the possibility that we get split with very heavy rain to our northwest and north and then strong to severe storms off to our east and northeast.
After this system moves through we will be cooler and drier to hit the first weekend of the new year. We will likely remain under this pattern through the first half of the weekend and slowly transition Sunday.