12/20 – Brittany’s “Warmer, But Still Cold” Tuesday Evening Forecast
Through tonight, the residual rain/convection should begin to exit the forecast area stage east as much drier air aloft begins to work its way into the region. The very weak surface low will continue to meander over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the short term period allowing for curvature in the low level pressure field. This frictional component should be enough to keep low level cloudiness over much of the forecast area through Wednesday. The surface low should lift northward out of the region late Wednesday into Thursday ahead of a very potent surface cold front and parent upper trough (see more in long term section). Globals do ping a weak QPF signal mostly along and east of I59 on Thursday with isentropic ascent on the northwest side of the surface low, but overall this signal is on the weaker side with just a few hundredths projected. Still, with the weak ascent, expect the area to continue to hang on to partly to mostly cloudy skies. Ahead of the front, temperatures will continue to climb a bit on Wednesday and into Thursday where more average temps are expected. Don`t get used to the brief “warm” up.
The main weather feature finally makes its appearance starting late Thursday and into early Friday. The front will be very noticeable when it moves through the region with an abrupt and cold wind shift. Additionally, the strength of the surface winds will abruptly increase and remain strong through much of the day Friday and into Friday night. With the front, albeit strong in nature, globals are not picking up much QPF with the front…ahead or along. The current forecast generally shows around or even less than a tenth of an inch with some locations escaping with 0 QPF. With that, not too worried about a flash freeze or any type of ice issues in regards to travel as the 30-40mph wind gusts will help dry up any residual liquid.