12/13 – Rob Knight’s Monday Morning “Cooler Start” Forecast

Return flow in the low-levels is already trying to begin but by midday and for the next few days it will increase with temperatures already moderating today and then a return of the well above normal temps beginning as early as Tuesday morning.

Now the question is will we test records, it looks like right now we could end up a few degrees short. 1971, 2007, and 2009 were all warm and hold most of the records for the next 3-4 days with record highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s. Second issue could be clouds. Looking at satellite it appears we could have upper-level clouds from across Mexico move through the region.

Deep southwest flow in the mid and upper levels will dominate the Gulf south through the upcoming weekend.  This flow pattern will advect in a plume of deeper Pacific based moisture into the region in the mid and upper levels by Saturday and Sunday.  In the low levels, the region will remain on the western side of surface high centered over the Southeastern CONUS.  Onshore flow will keep a warm and humid airmass in place in the low levels.

Model spread begins to increase heading into Saturday and Sunday as a surface cold front moves into the region, elevating rain potential along with a few t-storms Saturday.

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