12/1 – Brittany’s “Rebounding Temperatures Ahead” Thursday Evening Forecast
Surface ridge continues to build in from the north while sliding east across the Ohio River Valley. This has kept temperatures on the cool side. This will continue tonight as decent radiational cooling commences. Will see a slight orientation change in lows tonight with the coolest temps in northeast portions of the CWA as that high moves east. Should see a slight uptick in mins as an upper level ridge centered over the southern Gulf of Mexico builds expands northward. This trend continues into Friday which will promote airmass moderation. The most appreciable change in sensible weather will be Friday night when overnight lows drastically increase in response to moisture surging northward and cloud cover increasing. We`ll go from seeing 30s and 40s tonight to low 60s for those min temps. The other potential impact may be some fog. Guidance suggests lower visibilities will be possible as dewpoint quickly rise into the 60s.
Saturday through Wednesday night a mid latitude trough will be tracking east across the Central and High Plains Friday, crossing the upper/mid Mississippi River Valley Friday night. As surface ridge north of the CWA slides east, southeasterly flow will return and bring moisture back to the area. As Saturday comes, the cold front associated with this system will be approaching the CWA during the afternoon hours. Glancing at model soundings, there with be a little elevated instability in place with the help of low level temps in the mid to upper 70s. Not expecting much in the way of thunder activity but could be a few thunderstorms in the mix as the front moves in.
The remainder of the forecast period, early next week, will be similar to Sunday. The upper ridge, still centered in the southern Gulf of Mexico, will again expand farther north. Since moisture really never gets flushed out, could still be looking at slight chance of rain Monday and Tuesday. Uncertainty on that potential because if the ridge builds enough to the north, it may provide too much subsidence for shower initiation. Unusually warm temps would exist in the setup as that ridge builds north with. Global models suggest highs will be topping out in the upper 70s to the low 80s. Record highs this time of year run around the low to mid 80s, so won`t be too far off from that.