11/5 – Payton’s Sunday Night Forecast

An upper level ridge centered over northern Mexico extends well
across the northern Gulf coast. Sinking air from this feature will
keep rain from developing over the area  into the first
couple days of this week as it remains in place. Another effect from
that ridge will be above normal temperatures. Highs have been in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. This will continue to be the case.

The weather will begin to change going into Wednesday with the
return of rainfall to the region. Models show shortwave dropping out
of the southern Rockies Wednesday afternoon, then tracking across
the northern Gulf States Thursday. A slow moving frontal boundary
ahead of the main trough will sag into the area Wednesday night into Thursday
bringing scattered showers to mainly locations north of I-12. The
boundary will not move much until Thursday morning when the base of
the trough reaches into the area. Decreasing mid level temps
will produce a little instability but result in elevated isolated
thunderstorms. Model soundings show mid level winds in the 50 knot
range…so could have a few strong cells with wind gusts around 30
knots.

A very progressive pattern will quickly bring the end of the rain by
noon Thursday. That will be the last chance for rainfall for the
forecast area through this week and into the weekend. Temperatures
will fall back to around normal for the remainder of the forecast.