11/27 – Payton’s Monday Afternoon Forecast
After a cold start, it’s warming up quickly this afternoon. Upper analysis shows a broad trough exiting the east coast of the US, low-pressure cutting off in the southern Gulf of Mexico and ridge moving east across the midsection of the country. Post frontal subsidence continues to keep the area rain free. Ridge nudging in from the west will promote slight warming today with most locations seeing around 70 degrees for highs. This ridge to the west will quickly race east across the area tonight which will draw the trough in the southern Gulf closer in to the northern Gulf Coast. A few showers my develop in the coastal waters by the afternoon but not expecting any inland. Slowly moderating temps will continue into Tuesday.
Moisture will begin to be drawn into the area as early as Wednesday from a weak shortwave that models show coming out into the mid-Mississippi Valley. There will be a gradient between drier areas east of I-55 and wetter regions along the Atchafalaya Basin. Overall coverage shouldn’t be too high but enough to warrant chance probabilities. The better rain chances come on Thursday when a secondary, faster moving, and stronger trough races into the mid Mississippi Valley and absorbs the weaker shortwave that will be near the forecast area at that time. A frontal boundary will accompany this stronger trough and provide the lift to produce rain coverage approaching 50%. Once this front moves through, a slight cool down is expected Friday before warming returns this weekend. Rain chances appear to be low thru this period.