11/4 – Rob Knight’s “WELL Above Seasonal Temperatures” Friday Morning Forecast
The primary story this Friday morning is visibility concerns. Widespread fog, some dense has developed generally along and north of the I10/12 corridor east of I55 this morning. The fog is developing mainly in the coolest locations where the boundary layer moisture surge has developed overnight. In fact, most of these areas have warmed about 4-6 degrees respectively as warm air advection begins to set up ahead of the next weather system.
All eyes begin to shift to the northwest later this afternoon and through the overnight tonight. The region will be situated between a high pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean and a rather deeply amplified disturbance across the central US. With the trough starting to butt up against the ridge, there will be some questions in terms of what to expected through the weekend.
The surface low is forecast to develop well north of our region along the I35 corridor. This looks pretty similar to what we should see climatologically speaking in terms of storm track for early cool season. A trailing cold front pushes into the region, however, becomes parallel to the mean flow and begins to stall this weekend.
As for severity, models show some severe potential west of the I55 corridor later tonight and into the day on Saturday where the higher (albeit still low) instability values and best shear reside. For now thinking a decaying squall line later tonight and into Saturday is the primary concern with a strong wind gust or two mostly west of I55. Going into Sunday the front begins to lift back north, which will lead to more clouds and a few scattered showers. Since most of the upper forcing has moved well north and east of the forecast area at this point, think that a few conversational showers will be the primary highlight.