11/28 – Rob’s “Changing Pattern” Morning Forecast

Another chilly morning across a large majority of the area thanks to a nearby area of surface high pressure. Good news for today is this surface high is expected to continue to push east, which will begin to develop more of an onshore flow allowing for a steady increase in Gulf moisture. High temps today will average about 5-8 degrees warmer than yesterday with many locations breaking above 60F.

With a destabilizing atmosphere, Thursday will bring the potential for a few afternoon showers. Beginning early Friday, a convective complex of showers and thunderstorms may push north out of the Gulf and across the area throughout the day. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) now has most of the area under a Marginal Risk of severe storms. It is possible a few storms may be strong to possibly severe with damaging winds the main threat.

Once this warm front lifts north of the area Friday night and into early Saturday, we will enter the warm sector of a very potent developing storm system to our Northwest. A potential secondary round of showers/strong to severe t-storms with the cold front passing early Saturday, depending on how much the atmosphere destabilizes. Good news is this system quickly ejects east by Saturday afternoon, with improving conditions to follow.

Beyond this system by late this weekend into early next week, models have begun to diverge on confidence with a secondary system impacting the area. Guidance now suggests the front to stall somewhere in the northern Gulf, which may keep most shower/storm activity confined to near or south of coastal areas.