11/24 – Brittany’s “Wet Conditions Ahead” Thanksgiving Evening Forecast
The system today has progressed slightly slower this afternoon. For tonight, convection over Texas/West LA will move east, with a surface low developing. A warm frontal boundary will lift ahead of the system likely between 00-02Z. There will be more widespread showers and thunderstorm as the front lifts and the system move into the western half of the CWA. The warm(er) sector, where storms could become surface based, will generally be along and south of the I-12/I-10 corridor. There will be at least some shear and instability in this region and cannot rule out the potential for a quick, brief TOR, but the chances are low. There also could be a storm or two that becomes rooted along the boundary itself as it lifts across the portions of the SE LA and S MS. Meanwhile, along and north of the boundary, heavy rain will be the greatest threat around 2-3″ an locally high north of I-12. This could lead to an isolated flash flood threat mainly in urban areas where runoff would be higher. Otherwise, this could bring some beneficial rain to the area. Storms should clear to the east by daybreak Friday with maybe some lingering convection over the coastal water. Friday will mainly be dry otherwise with a stalled boundary in place.
The second round of weather will be mainly Saturday afternoon into the early hours Sunday. A stronger storm system will move across Texas into Arkansas and drive a cold front through the state. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will noted along and ahead with some severe weather possible before the dry slot moves in. Once the system pulls away to the north, we actually stay in southerly flow both aloft and at the surface with high pressure in place. This will keep temperatures warm, likely near or above normal in for the first half of the week.