11/18 – Rob Knight’s “Cool” Mid-Morning Forecast
Surface analysis from yesterday to today shows high-pressure to the north shifted east and is now digging back southwest, towards the local area. This will provide a reinforcement of cool/dry continental airmass. It will hardly be a noticeable change outside of a slight drop in dew-points and temps. And speaking of highs, expect near climatology or around 70.
By later this week, the northern Gulf coast will remain under control of strong high-pressure pattern. At the surface, strong high pressure will continue to keep persistent easterly winds in place with near zero rain chances. We will start to see some return of deep Gulf moisture late Sunday and into Monday out ahead of a quick moving surface front. Models suggest support of isolated rain chances during this time period, lasting into around the time the front eventually tries to swing through on Monday. However, given just enough Gulf moisture returning out ahead of the front, combined with enough low-level to surface convergence associated with the front, it likely will not take much to squeeze out a few isolated showers.
Looks like another impulse will attempt to roll through again mid-week, and appears to be a bit deeper closer to the northern Gulf coast which perhaps may lead to slightly better rain chances.