10/9 – Payton’s Monday Afternoon Forecast

After a relatively quiet day behind Hurricane Nate yesterday and last night, but rain has returned today. It is still rather warm and humid for what is getting close to mid October and temps across the region were only down into the mid to upper 70s
across the area. Probably the most active day in the forecast will be today. Deep southerly flow will return and this will pump rather rich tropical moisture into the area. Combine that with southwest flow aloft and added lift from a mid level disturbance still sitting over the western Gulf and the ingredients are in place for numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms. Showers are already moving into the coastal waters and expect convection to get started across the area rather early today. Initially close to the coast this morning and then quickly expanding north through the day. Rain will probably linger well into the evening hours over interior locations.

Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday an upper low over the 4 corners today will swing through the southern and central plains and this will drive a cold front into the Lower MS valley. Given the very positive tilt of the trough with the disturbance quickly lifting to the northeast into the OH Valley early Wednesday and the ridge over the southeastern US to build and over the area, this front will have very little push once it approaches the area and will stall over the area before really losing its identity Thursday. This will help in keeping scattered precip for Tuesday but then we begin to dry out especially with the ridge building in aloft.

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