10/31 – Rob’s “SpOOky” Halloween Forecast

Moisture found via satellite this morning funneling northward and converging along the Texas coastal bend as well as just south of Louisiana. The moisture south of our area will be capped quite a bit and only a sprinkle or two would be expected with the deepest, beneath-inversion, cloud depths. A cold front currently slowing over east Texas and northern Louisiana will give the necessary lift tomorrow providing for showers/t-storms which will move east. The front will lift north by Wed morning but the upper and mid dynamics supported by the jet feature will remain and ever so slowly move eastward and may even stall over the northwestern portion of our area. This will allow on and off sh/ts each day and even some night hours starting Wed through the weekend. With the support oriented sw-ne, a precip gradient will set up with the lowest amounts expected over the southeastern half of the area. But all areas will experience a slow but steady warm up for day and night temps with some muggy warm conditions by the end of the week.

Even warmer conditions may begin into the new week as high pressure settles into the area and the jet lifts out bringing more sun along with left over moisture remaining in the area. Models are flirting with the idea of bringing another strong Canadian front into the area by mid next week. The jet feature that is supporting this front looks very zonal in these same models during that time frame. If zonal, the front would be very slow to move southward and therefore the timing of passage would be later in the week(instead of Wed, more toward Friday or the weekend.) but if the jet can be non-zonal, the front would come through at a faster pace and Wed would be a logical answer to the time question. This is well past the temporal domain of this pack and we will simply have to get several days behind us to see which of these conditions hold true. But a cold front does look to be in the cards sometime next week.

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