10/30 – Payton’s Monday Afternoon Forecast

Return flow to start on a gentle note today. This would normally
bring moisture back into the area but dp temps don`t show a fast
recovery since the dry air is well south of the area over the
gulf. And this also may be why models do not want to indicate any
fog production tonight and or Wed morning as well. But it would be
hard to say we won`t see any fog at all even if vis levels only
dip to around 1 to 3 miles. This won`t be included yet in the
fcast since confidence in even patchy fog is moderate at best.
Another front will slow and stall as it approaches the area from
the north tonight into Tuesday morning. It is interesting that
all these variables(especially the stalling front) cause the
perfect scenario that supports dense fog with the only major
exception being dp temp values.

Yet another front will approach from the northwest and stall well
away from the area but it will help get a deeper moisture fetch
started. The deeper moisture will interact with some jet dynamics
for lift causing some sh/ts activity to develop Wednesday through
the remainder of the week. A few embedded disturbances will move
northeast inside the main upper flow enhancing the sh/ts activity
a bit. The first of these moves through Wed night. Rain chances
and consequently, total rainfall values will show a tight
gradient oriented from higher values northwest to lower southeast
as it bisects the area. High pressure will ridge into the area
from the northeast after the weekend to bring rain chances lower
for the start of next week.

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