10/26 – Rob’s “Warming” Thursday Morning News Forecast

One last day of mostly clear skies will present itself as the post frontal surface high pressure south of the region shifts east. At the same time, a southerly flow will move back into the area increasing the humidity and destabilizing the atmosphere. Moisture and rainfall will be making a return Friday into Saturday as a cold front swings through the area. An upper level trough just now entering the US in the Dakotas will progress southeast towards the Great Lakes while it significantly simplifies south…all the way to the Texas/Mexico border. Meanwhile, tightening pressure gradient over the local area between high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and approaching trough of low pressure. This will enhance southerly flow Friday which will rapidly increase moisture throughout the column. Model soundings show moisture increasing from barely half an inch today to over 1.5″ by Friday evening. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will develop over the CWA Friday, mainly in the afternoon as moisture begins to increase and pressures fall. The bulk of convection should be rolling through Friday night as the cold front moves through. While there doesn’t appear to be a big threat of severe weather, soundings do indicate a small window of opportunity for a few cells to be strong with wind gusts in the 30 to maybe 45 mph range.

One change noted in this system is a possibly faster progression of the rain shield. Models indicate that most precipitation should be east of the CWA before 18Z Saturday. Therefore, I’ve made an adjustment to precipitation timing in the forecast for Saturday. This faster movement also means colder air should also filter in earlier. Thus have dropped forecast highs by a few degrees across the board from previous forecast. These temps will be a good 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Saturday night temps will follow this trend as well with the northern half of the region seeing lows in the mid to upper 30s.

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