10/20 – Rob’s Friday/Weekend Forecast
This afternoon we have surface high-pressure currently centered over the Appalachian Mountains. Low pressure was centered over the Canadian Rockies with a cold front down the lee side of the Rockies. An inverted surface trough was located over the western Gulf of Mexico…which is providing for showers/t-storms in the NW’tern GOM, W’tern Louisiana and E’tern Texas. This activity will continue to move towards E’tern Texas through this afternoon. Temperatures are quite a bit milder this morning with most locations seeing temperatures in the 60s with more of a humid air mass moving into the region.
Surface high-pressure will continue to move eastward today and Saturday, as the frontal system to the west moves out of the Rockies. This will allow surface winds to gain more of a southeasterly component, increasing moisture across the area. As the cold front and upper trough approach from the west on Saturday, there will be a better potential for showers and thunderstorms across the area. Sunday, a pre-frontal trough and a surface cold front will approach the area. The STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) has the area in a SLIGHT THREAT for a few t-storms to become SEVERE…with the main threat Hattiesburg north. This could include HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS and the potential for SMALL HAIL and ISOLATED TORNADIC activity through Sunday night. The associated cold front looks to move through the local area overnight Sunday night, possibly as late as after sunrise Monday. There could be some lingering rain patches behind the frontal passage going into Monday.
Behind the front, a deep upper trough will cover much of the eastern half of the country for much of the first half of the work week. Early showers Monday will be the last substantive chance of rain until at least next weekend. Cold air will get reinforced Tuesday, making for a fairly cool middle of the week. Temperatures will return to near normal levels by Thursday or Friday.)