10/06 Ryan’s “Hurricane Nate” Friday Forecast
I hope you enjoyed today’s beautiful weather because it’s time to prepare for Hurricane Nate’s arrival overnight tomorrow. Hurricane Nate’s forward speed has almost tripled to over 22 mph from last night, and as it moves across the Central Gulf tomorrow it will increase even further, moving into the Northern Gulf around midnight. It is expected to remain a tropical storm for the duration of the trip, but it will become a hurricane just before landfall near the Harrison/Jackson County line. The winds will be on the lower end of hurricane strength (~80 mph), but will be enhanced on the Eastern half of the storm by its rapid forward motion, so winds in excess of 100 mph are more likely for most of Jackson County and into Mobile. The most recent forecast will bring the first of the outer bands onshore by the early afternoon (~ 2 PM). The bulk of the storm will begin to arrive around 8 PM, and the strongest winds/eye will move inland by 2 AM Sunday morning. Because this storm is moving so quickly, we could begin seeing conditions returning to “normal” as early as 5 AM, and clearing conditions by 4 PM Sunday. A trailing trough will slide through the area on Monday as the storm lifts towards the Northeast, bringing some rain but no severe weather is likely. We’ll drier weather with dropping temperatures by Wednesday.
Update(10:43 PM): The latest NHC forecast has shifted slightly again, this time back to the East, bringing the forecast landfall into Jackson County. Nate is now a hurricane, and will continue to slowly strengthen as it races Northward across the Gulf. It’s still expected to remain a Category 1, but further intensification is not out of the question, just unlikely due to its lack of organization and limited time over the deeper Gulf waters. Landfall still expected around 2 AM on Sunday, but some of the outer bands can move in as early as 12 hours earlier. Rob, Payton, and I will be in studio throughout the day monitoring the situation, and broadcasting updates live.