10/12 – The Chief’s “Threat For Heavy Rain” Wednesday Midday Forecast

An approaching cold front from the northwest coupled with daytime heating will continue to increase shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Upper level high pressure near the local area will be shifting east through tonight. The overall flow has shifted to the south which will continue to bring Gulf moisture into the region. Surface afternoon temps will run in the mid-80s with cooling mid-level temps will create quite an unstable atmosphere. The overall setup is marginal at best and SW MS stands the best chance to see anything strong to severe t-storms. Regardless, should see scattered to possibly numerous showers and thunderstorms today. The cold front associated with the trough will reach the area late tonight/early Thursday morning. The front will slow overhead and slowly push to the SSE by midday Thursday into Thursday afternoon.

The forecast this weekend becomes a bit more uncertain as models struggle to resolve just how deep the upper disturbance digs Thursday. I’m sticking with full frontal passage and a drier weekend. Moving to late weekend into early next week, a secondary cold front pushes towards the area. After having a day or so of onshore flow beforehand, will have moisture in place for the next front to capitalize on. Coverage is still uncertain but at least some chance of rain appears to be possible.

 

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